Last week ended with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating the central bank’s commitment to keeping interest rates high enough to choke off economic activity while bringing inflation back down to its 2% annual target.
“It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so,” Powell said during his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday. “We have tightened policy significantly over the past year. Although inflation has moved down from its peak – a welcome development – it remains too high. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”
That will be done while also keeping a close eye on incoming economic data, Powell added.
Well, there will be no shortage of new data this week from a consumer confidence reading for August, an update on second quarter gross domestic product, home prices for June and pending home sale for July, along with a bevy of reports on the labor market. And no doubt the stock and bond markets will continue to analyze Powell’s comments and price in any anticipated actions by the Fed.
“We believe the Fed will remain vigilant and data dependent in determining whether rates sustained at current levels for a longer period of time or further rate rises will be needed,” Vanguard senior economist Andrew Patterson said on Friday. “Our baseline is for the latter, another 1-3 hikes are possible over the next several months and into next year before leaving them on hold for some time and only cutting when broader macro conditions weaken, resulting in a shallow recession.”
One piece of the puzzle for Powell will be the health of the labor market. On Tuesday, the Labor Department will release the number of job openings as of the end of July. Analysts are forecasting the number at 9.45 million following June’s 9.6 million.
On Wednesday, private payroll firm ADP will release its monthly employment survey for August with 194,000 jobs expected following July’s supercharged 324,000 number.
But Friday brings the big data highlight of the week with the government’s report on nonfarm payrolls for August. Economists foresee another slip to 168,000 from 187,000.
Sandwiched in between are personal income and spending numbers for July as well as that month’s personal consumption price expenditures index. The inflation measure, while not as commonly known as the consumer price index, is one closely followed by the Fed. One reason that inflation has not come down closer to the Fed’s 2% annual target is that consumers continue to spend, buoyed by wage gains.
“Recession keeps getting pushed back and the staying power of the consumer is a key reason why,” said Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo’s corporate and investment banking group. “Even as credit becomes harder to access for consumers and pandemic era savings get closer to running out, consumers continue to spend. June marked the largest monthly gain in real consumption since January, which suggests that PCE is set to start the third quarter on solid ground.”
The Fed’s monetary policy committee will meet again on Sept. 20. Although expectations have been for no change in the level of interest rates after July’s quarter-point increase, the odds of a hike at the next scheduled meeting in November are starting to creep up.
CME Group’s futures trading price the odds of a rate hike at the Fed’s November meeting at roughly 57%, up from 36% prior to Powell’s Jackson Hole comments.
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二 | 1月10日，根据每一份网上报道，1月8日晚，华强北的渠道提供商收到了来自美国的调价信息。
三 | 中国市场的产品，如iphone xr、iphone 8、iphone 8 plus、iphone x、iphone x s和iphone x s max，都开始降价，最高单品渠道价格下跌450元。
四 | 报道称，iphone xr 64gb批发价下跌450元，现价为5250元；iphone x 64gb批发价下跌100元，现价为5630元；iphone 8 64gb批发价下跌420元，其中3元现价3880元；iphone 8+64gb批发价下跌420元。下跌450元，其中两个目前的价格为4800元。iPhone XS 64GB（金色版）的频道价格已降至8000元以下至7610元；iPhone XS Max 64GB的频道价格已降至9000元以下，金色版已降至8520元以下，256GB版已降至10000元以下，金色版已降至9385元以下；512G GOL的最高价格DEN版，目前渠道价格为11100元。据《日经商业新闻》（Nikkei Business News）报道，上个月底，苹果要求供应商在1-3月削减新iPhone的生产，这是美国公司计划在两个月内第二次削减旗舰设备的生产。本月早些时候，苹果首席执行官库克在给苹果投资者的一封信中下调了公司对2019年第一季度（2018年自然年第四季度）的业绩预期，将收入从先前的预测范围（890亿美元至930亿美元）削减至840亿美元，总利率从38%降至38.5%。
