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RALEIGH, N.C. – The 2024 election promises to feature several major battlegrounds, but for sheer breadth of competitive contests, North Carolina next year will be hard to beat.

It starts with the presidential race. Recent presidential contests in North Carolina have been close: In 2020, Donald Trump won North Carolina by about 74,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast. Experts expect a competitive race again in 2024.

In addition, a newly empowered GOP majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court is poised to redraw the congressional map to benefit Republicans, producing the possibility of competitive races.

Meanwhile, the parties will fiercely contest both chambers of the legislature, which the GOP currently controls by narrow supermajorities, thanks to a Democrat-to-Republican party-switcher in the state House earlier this year. That party switch, by state Rep. Tricia Cotham, now enables Republicans to enact a strongly conservative agenda over the vetoes of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper if they wish.

Cooper, for his part, is term-limited, teeing up a knock-down, drag-out contest to succeed him, likely between Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

And that isn’t it for falling dominoes: The decisions by Stein and Robinson to seek the governorship leave their old offices of attorney general and lieutenant governor up for grabs in 2024, joining the GOP-held offices of state treasurer and labor commissioner as open-seat contests. The Democratic-held offices of secretary of state and auditor and the Republican-held offices of schools superintendent, insurance commissioner and agriculture commissioner will also be contested in 2024, with varying degrees of competitiveness.

In other words, in 2024, North Carolina will be one of the centers of the political universe – important in part because it’s a uniquely competitive state.

“There’s no telling who will win in 2024, but I’d bet half-court tickets to the UNC-Duke game that it will be close and North Carolina will retain its title as the definition of ‘purple,’” says Chris Cooper, a Western Carolina University political scientist (and no relation to the governor).

In recent years, North Carolina has mostly hosted close statewide races. During the 2020 and 2022 elections, North Carolina held 16 federal and state races for statewide office – and no candidate in any of them won more than 54% of the vote.

In addition, unlike most states in this highly polarized age, North Carolina has elected a thorough mix of Democrats and Republicans to statewide executive offices, which suggests that voters in the state – or at least a crucial subset of them – are willing to split their tickets.

The Republicans have done best in Senate and presidential contests. In those races, the GOP has kept a consistent – if modest – edge. It’s been a decade and a half since a Democrat has won one of those races. The last to win were Kay Hagan for Senate and Barack Obama for president, both of them way back in 2008.

“North Carolina has proved to be a purple state, but not necessarily a swing state,” says Cooper, the political scientist. “The statewide outcomes have been among the closest in the country, but Republicans have found themselves just on the winning side of the razor’s edge for presidential and Senate elections.”

The most intriguing contrast one can draw for North Carolina is with one of its neighbors to the south. Could North Carolina follow Georgia’s path in voting blue for Senate and presidential elections?

For the better part of two decades, Georgia, like North Carolina, had voted consistently Republican in key federal races – until 2020. That year, Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won uphill, and narrow, victories for Senate seats, while Biden was winning the state in the presidential race. In 2022, Warnock won another close election to a full six-year term.

In an era when urban areas have grown bluer by the year, Georgia has seen its major metro area – Atlanta – steadily move toward the Democrats. In 2000, metro Atlanta backed Republican George W. Bush by 4 points. By 2020, the Atlanta metro area backed Biden by 28 points, a whopping 32-point shift.

North Carolina’s biggest metro areas saw a similar pattern.

North Carolina’s Raleigh-Durham metro area backed Gore in 2000 by less than a point. Two decades later, Biden won it by 26 points. The state’s most populous county, Wake County (which includes Raleigh and Cary), favored Bush in 2000 by about a point, but backed Biden by 27.

Similar patterns held in the North Carolina portion of the Charlotte metro area. In 2000, Bush won the Charlotte metro area by 18 points. But by 2020, Biden won the region by 4 points – a 22-point shift. The state’s second largest county, Mecklenburg County (which includes Charlotte), voted for Bush by almost 3 points in 2000 but Biden by a massive 36 points.

Such shifts helped the Democrats narrow the statewide gap substantially in North Carolina. In 2000, Bush defeated Gore statewide by 13 points, whereas Trump defeated Biden by about 1 point.

But these shifts weren’t enough to tip the state to the Democrats in the presidential race. A big reason why: Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte don’t have as large a footprint in North Carolina as metro Atlanta does in Georgia.

In 2020, Atlanta’s metro counties accounted for just shy of a majority of votes cast in Georgia – 49%, up from 46% in 2000. So even as outlying Georgia was growing redder – backing Bush by 19 and Trump by 26 – Democrats were able to turn a 12-point statewide loss by Al Gore in 2000 into a narrow victory for Biden in 2020.

By contrast, the Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte metro areas account for a minority of the state’s voters, growing from 36% of the votes cast in 2000 to 42% in 2020.

In other words, in North Carolina, the Democratic gains in the two big metro areas were nearly canceled out by the large and growing GOP margins elsewhere.

“North Carolina has the second most rural voters in the country after Texas, so running up the score in Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte won't get you victory the way Atlanta does in Georgia,” says Cooper, the political scientist. “There’s been a massive Republican gain in rural areas”

Over the next quarter-century, Wake and Mecklenburg counties are projected to grow dramatically faster in population than most other North Carolina counties, according to calculations by the state’s Board of Science, Technology & Innovation. Over the long term, this could make the state bluer.

But for now, North Carolina’s political balance of power belongs in the hands of “countrypolitan" counties, a term coined by Mac McCorkle, a longtime North Carolina consultant who now teaches at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy, and Rachel Salzberg.

These 28 counties sit within the economic and commuting orbit of North Carolina’s metro areas, but they’re located on the outlying edge, and they lack the racial diversity, college attainment levels and higher incomes that increasingly align with voting Democratic.

By McCorkle’s and Salzberg’s calculations, “countrypolitan” counties backed Trump in 2020 by a gaping 63%-36% margin, and collectively they provided Trump with about 50% more raw votes than North Carolina’s 50 most rural counties did.

That’s a major reason why Republicans have remained modestly ahead in North Carolina, at least in high-profile federal races, experts say.

To do well in North Carolina, says Western Carolina’s Cooper, “Democrats don’t have to win the rural vote, but they have to avoid getting pummeled.”

This is the goal of Anderson Clayton, the newly installed head of the state Democratic Party. At 25, Clayton, an Appalachian State University graduate, is the youngest state Democratic chairman in the nation.

“One of the things that I think that I learned from being on national campaigns is that a lot of times the national party is not looking at rural places like they should be,” Anderson told an audience in Union County, according to The Washington Post. “They’re looking at it as a place of a problem. And for me, I got really frustrated with that. It was part of the thing that called me home.”

This advice doesn’t just hold for presidential and Senate races, political observers say. It will also help determine whether Democrats can stay competitive in North Carolina’s state-level offices or whether Republicans start running away with them.

Since the dawn of the 20th century, North Carolina has elected only three Republican governors – one for a term in the 1970s, one for two terms in the 1980s and 1990s, and one for a term in the 2010s.

Historically, the successful Democratic model for winning North Carolina gubernatorial races has been to nominate a candidate who can win in metro areas but who hails from less populated regions of the state and connects with voters there. A good example is the current governor, who helped his family farm tobacco while growing up.

But the pool of potential Democratic candidates from more rural areas “has dried up,” says Rob Schofield, the editor of the online publication NC Newsline. Lining up Democratic candidates to run everywhere, as Clayton seeks to do, will be challenging.

“That counts on people running even if they know they will lose and be sacrificed, which is a hard sell,” says Ferrel Guillory, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of North Carolina.

In any case, the likely 2024 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Stein, is set to break his party’s historic mold. Stein, a former legislator who has won two terms as attorney general, grew up in Chapel Hill, home of the University of North Carolina, and earned his undergraduate degree from Dartmouth and a law degree and a master’s of public affairs from Harvard.

Meanwhile, Stein’s potential Republican opponent also represents departure from past Republican gubernatorial candidates, who have tended to be economic conservatives from metro areas: Robinson is an outspoken social conservative who has flirted with conspiracy theories, ranging from the moon landing to crisis actors in school shootings.

Robinson doesn’t have a clear path to the nomination. In the primary, he faces state Treasurer Dale Folwell, former Congressman Mark Walker, former legislator Andy Wells and retired health executive Jesse Thomas. But he’s considered the front-runner, due to a strong core of support in a state where, by law, 30% plus one is enough to win a primary.

If the race comes down to Stein and Robinson, as conventional wisdom suggests, “it will be an epic and titanic battle that will be bitterly divided and deeply polarizing,” says Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at Catawba College. “Probably the most expensive gubernatorial race in the nation for next year, and it may break state records.”

One unknown for now is how the Republican supermajority flexes its expanded policy muscle.

After years of opposition, the GOP legislature in March passed legislation to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, and Cooper quickly signed it. But after Cotham’s party switch produced a supermajority, Republicans sidestepped Cooper’s veto and passed a 12-week abortion ban, which is being challenged in court.

Passage of the abortion ban could energize Democrats, as it has in other purple and even red states. This could be exacerbated if the GOP passes other laws popular with the party’s socially conservative base but unpopular among moderates. Robinson’s candidacy, too, risks scaring off Republican moderates.

“When the Republicans moved to find some way to accept Medicaid expansion, to me that reflected that, wow, these guys may be understanding their rough edges,” McCorkle says in an interview. “Then the abortion law happens and then Robinson happens. That could explode things.”

John Hood, president of the John William Pope Foundation, a grant-making foundation, says he believes Republicans in the legislature are “realistic.”

“They recognize that either Stein will be governor or Robinson will be governor, and they don’t trust either,” Hood says.

Ultimately, the noise from the presidential race, especially if Trump is the GOP nominee, could drown out everything else down-ballot.

“The national networks and media may be so consumed by the presidential election that state issues may not affect the public’s mind,” Guillory says.

。中国小康网4月25日北京电为了进一步凝聚侨商资源，助力粤港澳大湾区高质量发展，4月24日，深圳市侨商国际联合会（以下简称“深圳市侨商会”）在深圳开展换届选举活动，并举办第八届理监事会就职典礼暨侨商优秀企业家颁奖盛典。全国政协委员、香江集团董事长翟美卿连任深圳市侨商会会长。

B | 　　广东省委统战部副部长、省侨办主任庞国梅，深圳市委常委、统战部部长王强出席活动并致辞。

C | 广东省、深圳市有关领导同志参加活动。　　厚植粤侨精神，当好“招商员”“联络员”“宣传员”　　庞国梅充分肯定了深圳市侨商会在助推深圳经济社会发展和香港繁荣稳定方面发挥的积极作用。她表示，希望深圳市侨商会坚定发展信心，发挥投资兴业、双向开放生力军作用；厚植粤侨精神，发挥增进交流，连接中外桥梁作用；践行办会宗旨，发挥精准服务侨商侨企的平台作用，持续为广东高质量发展贡献“侨”力量。广东省委统战部副部长、省侨办主任庞国梅致辞　　王强表示，希望深圳市侨商会和广大侨胞侨商，继续当好深圳的“招商员”“联络员”和“宣传员”，推动更多侨商侨企来深投资兴业，推动深圳深度融入全球产业链体系，向海外全方位、多层次、立体化宣传展示深圳改革发展成就，持续讲好深圳故事、传播深圳好声音。深圳市委常委、统战部部长王强致辞　　活动为新当选的理监事成员、永远荣誉主席、永远名誉主席、名誉主席、顾问等举行授牌仪式。连任深圳市侨商会会长的全国政协委员、香江集团董事长翟美卿表示，24年来，深圳市侨商会凝侨心，汇侨力，聚侨智，护侨益，聚焦市委市政府中心工作，服务发展大局，积极为深圳经济社会发展作贡献。未来将进一步团结凝聚广大侨商深度融入“一带一路”和粤港澳大湾区建设大局，牢牢抓住发展机会，助力高质量发展。第十二届全国政协副主席李海峰为翟美卿会长授牌　　凝侨心聚侨力汇侨智护侨益彰显新时代新侨商的新作为　　翟美卿介绍说，过去5年来，深圳市侨商会团结凝聚侨商，聚力落实粤港澳大湾区国家发展战略，服务高质量发展大局。

D | 期间，深圳市侨商会组织各类政商沟通、走访调研、企业互访、合作交流、专题讲座，学习培训，创办粤港澳大湾区侨商合作高峰会、侨商论坛等高规格活动，为侨商深度合作搭建平台，持续开展各类品牌活动，通过一系列的高质量会务创新举措，为侨商侨企赋能。此外，还搭建粤港澳大湾区9市和香港澳门城市群侨商合作大平台，助力建设世界级湾区。全国政协委员、深圳市侨商国际联合会会长、香江集团董事长翟美卿致辞　　爱国爱乡，回报桑梓是华侨华人、港澳同胞的优良传统。多年来，深圳市侨商会依托深圳市侨商关爱公益基金会，积极引领会员投身乡村振兴、扶贫济困、疫情防控、爱心助学、志愿服务等各项公益事业，历年累计捐款捐物超百亿元。其中，在新冠疫情期间，全体侨商会成员为支持疫情防控捐款捐物等超1.3亿元。　　“深圳市侨商会将在市委统战部指导下，团结带领全体侨商会员，牢记宗旨，坚定信心，开拓进取，努力取得更多更大经济发展成果，在新时期中国式现代化建设的浪潮中彰显新时代新侨商的新作为、新担当。”翟美卿说。　　80后90后撑起“半边天” 新一代侨界青年接棒显担当　　当天晚上，活动表彰了为深圳市经济建设和侨商会发展做出突出贡献的侨商企业家。

E | 马介璋、马伟武等6位功勋模范侨商，以及刘根森、马楚力等14位杰出青年侨商受到了表彰。表彰活动旨在传承老一代侨商的爱国情怀和创业精神，同时激励青年一代侨商在新时代展现新风采，为大湾区的发展贡献新力量。　　长期以来，老一辈侨商为中国经济发展做出了重要贡献。如今，新一代侨界青年企业家正接过前辈的接力棒，肩负起新时代新侨商的职责使命。在深圳市侨商会第八届理监事会领导成员中，80、90后占比超过50%，本科以上学历占比91.6%。更多年轻、高学历、有国际视野和开拓创新精神的侨商青年企业家开始承担更大责任、发挥更多作用，助力侨商群体保持旺盛的生机活力和创新力。　　成立6大工作委员会精准服务凝聚侨商合力　　本次活动还为深圳市侨商会新成立的6大工作委员会举行了授旗仪式。　　6大工作委员会包括侨商大湾区委员会、侨商女性发展委员会、侨商青年委员会、侨商海外联络委员会、侨商公益慈善委员会和侨商文体委员会。这些委员会的成立，将有助于侨商会更好地服务会员，促进会员企业的发展，同时也将为粤港澳大湾区的建设注入新的活力。　　翟美卿表示，六大专业委员会将作为侨商会工作平台和服务抓手，强化职能，发挥动能，拓展会员服务空间，满足会员企业个性化、专业化需求。

F | 同时，通过找准会员需求的链接点，组织活动，更精细、也更精准的把侨商聚合在一起，形成合力，共享发展机遇，服务国家发展大局。（肖康）。

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