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A | 图为8月7日，沙特阿拉伯王储兼首相穆罕默德（中）、土耳其总统埃尔多安（左）和巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹在沙特麦加签署协议后合影。（新华社发） 这张3月25日在科威特首都科威特城拍摄的照片显示，位于费尔瓦尼耶省的科威特国际机场一油库遭袭后冒起浓烟。 The ouster of Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has roused substantial global media attention, particularly in light of the colorful images coming out of the country of protesters storming his opulent Colombo residence and turning it into a tourist attraction, posing for selfies, and organizing pool parties and cookouts.,But the chaos in Colombo isn’t the first time in the last decade or so that a head of state has been ousted from office in a time of crisis and forced to flee, with the last dozen years witnessing at least five comparable cases.,Ashraf Ghani’s Bags of Money,Last August, a ten-day blitzkrieg offensive by the Taliban* to capture cities in the midst of the NATO withdrawal culminated in the fall of Kabul and the collapse of the Afghan government. President Ashraf Ghani, the US-educated academic-turned president, fled the country he ruled at the West’s behest for seven years.,Ghani evacuated Kabul on August 15, the same day that Taliban fighters entered the city, and eventually ended up in the United Arab Emirates, where he took refuge. Ghani apologized to his countrymen and women for bolting, saying that leaving the capital “was the most difficult decision” of his life and that he took it to avoid a repeat of the bloody street fighting witnessed in the city between government and Taliban forces in the 1990s. In addition, he said, his security team had advised him not to stay due to the risk of assassination or capture.,The Russian Embassy in Kabul painted a different story, alleging that Ghani fled the city in a convoy of vehicles stuffed with so much cash that it could not fit in a helicopter which took him out of the country. UK media later alleged that Ghani may have sought to smuggle as much as $169 million in cash out of Kabul, with a former bodyguard later confirming that the ex-president’s entourage was carrying “many big bags” containing “hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of dollars.”,Ghani has categorically rejected the allegations against him, and has said that he would welcome an international investigation to clear his good name.,AfghanistanEx-Afghan President Ghani Says He Was Made 'Scapegoat' for Fleeing, Blames Trump - Report 31 December 2021, 03:27 GMT,Evo Morales’ Happy Ending,On November 10, 2019, Bolivia’s long-serving democratic socialist president Evo Morales was forced to step down after weeks of protests sparked by an election whose results were disputed by the country’s US-backed opposition. Characterizing the crisis as a “coup” and fearing he would be killed by assassins hired out by his enemies, Morales fled to Mexico, where he was granted asylum by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.,The Trump administration hailed Morales’ ouster, with the US president tweeting that the unrest sent “a strong signal to the illegitimate regimes in Venezuela and Nicaragua that democracy and the will of the people will always prevail.”,But the anti-Morales’ plot’s victory was short-lived. Immediately after touching down in Mexico, Morales vowed that he’d remain in politics, and that his “fight” against “discrimination and humiliation” would continue.,In late 2019, after the election victory of leftist forces in Argentina, Morales traveled to that country, where he was granted asylum. In November 2020, after new elections in his home country saw the victory of Luis Arce, his former finance minister, Morales triumphantly returned to Bolivia. Today, although he is not president, Morales remains a major force in Bolivian politics, consistently attacking “Yankee imperialism” and recently calling on Bolivia and Argentina to join forces to become a global lithium-producing superpower.,The fate of his adversaries has not been so bright, with Jeanine Anez, the right wing politician who took over after Morales’ ouster, recently sentenced to ten years in prison for her role in the 2019 coup.,© Photo : Twitter / @evoespuebloFormer Bolivian President Evo Morales during his triumphant return to his home country in November 2020.Former Bolivian President Evo Morales during his triumphant return to his home country in November 2020.© Photo : Twitter / @evoespueblo,Yemen’s Hadi,In 2012, Yemeni politician Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi seemed to have the world at his feet. Succeeding President Ali Abdullah Saleh, whom he faithfully served as vice president starting in 1994, Hadi won the February 2012 presidential elections with an impressive 100 percent of the vote, running as the sole candidate. He proceeded to initiate a US- and Saudi-supported reform program aimed at transforming Yemen into a federal model of government under which six regions would enjoy large-scale political autonomy. Hadi also supported ramping up cooperation with Washington to fight piracy in the Gulf of Aden, and al-Qaeda** cells attempting to set up shop in Yemen’s sparsely populated northeastern territories.,Hadi’s reforms, allegations of corruption, and the ill-fated decision to end fuel subsidies in 2014 proved fatal, and between late 2014 and early 2015, much of the country was overrun by the Houthis, an Islamist, social justice-oriented political and militant movement dominant in the country’s populous western provinces. In January 2015, Hadi left his presidential palace in Sana’a for the last time, and, without resigning, flew to Saudi Arabia.,© AP Photo / Hani MohammedShiite Houthi tribesmen hold their weapons as they chant slogans during a tribal gathering showing support for the Houthi movement, in Sanaa, Yemen, Saturday Sept. 21, 2019Shiite Houthi tribesmen hold their weapons as they chant slogans during a tribal gathering showing support for the Houthi movement, in Sanaa, Yemen, Saturday Sept. 21, 2019© AP Photo / Hani Mohammed,Two months later, in March 2015, a Saudi-led military coalition began a military operation in Yemen aimed at restoring Hadi to power. Seven years on, the coalition has made little progress, and the impoverished southern Arabian nation remains mired in a deep political, military, economic and humanitarian crisis. Meanwhile, the Houthis have counterattacked by launching drone and missile strikes targeting Saudi infrastructure, military bases, airports, oil facilities, missile defense systems and cities, with no amount of sophisticated US-made air defense hardware seeming sufficient to stop the attacks.,As for Hadi, the exiled president resigned from the post in April, transferring power to an eight-member ‘presidential leadership council’ tasked with negotiating a permanent ceasefire with the Houthis.,Saudi Arabia ‘Pushed’ Yemen’s Hadi to Resign, Placed Him on House Arrest - WSJ17 April, 22:22 GMT,Ukraine’s Yanukovych,Of all the ejections from office featured in this list so far, perhaps none have been more consequential to the geopolitical instability being experienced by the world today than that of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.,Yanukovych handcrafted the crisis which would culminate in his ouster in the winter of 2013 by pulling a major political U-turn and rejecting an association agreement with the European Union in favor of closer ties with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. The decision prompted pro-EU protesters to flood the center of Kiev, with demonstrators establishing tent encampments and occupying the heart of the city – the Maidan Nezalezhnosti (lit. ‘Independence Square’).,Protests continued for weeks, with Yanukovych making concessions under EU pressure, accepting the resignation of the government of Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov in late January, and negotiating with an increasingly emboldened opposition to try to resolve the crisis.,On February 20, protests turned bloody, with 49 demonstrators and four police officers killed by mysterious snipers in a single day. On February 22, just a day after reaching an EU-backed agreement on the settling the crisis through early elections, Yanukovych fled Kiev in fear for his life, traveling east and slipping across the border into Russia, where he was offered refuge. Pro-European forces in Ukraine’s parliament drafted a resolution to strip Yanukovych of power, claiming he had “withdrawn from his duties in an unconstitutional manner.” From Russia, Yanukovych blasted the new authorities, and characterized his ouster as a coup d’état.,Kiev, Washington Responsible for Failure of Minsk Peace Agreements, Ukraine's Former President Says14 March, 15:17 GMT,Tunisia’s Ben Ali,On January 14, 2011, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s 24-year reign as Tunisian leader came to an end, with the president and his family fleeing the country to Saudi Arabia after weeks of protests which would hail the start of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’. The ‘Tunisian Revolution’ was driven by long-standing grievances among Tunisians about corruption, high unemployment, inflation, and general poor living conditions, as well as limitations on freedom of speech. The protests were sparked by 26-year-old street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi, who set himself on fire in the street after police confiscated his wares when he failed to pay a bribe, and after his plea for help from the local governor was left unanswered. The young man's act, which would cause over 100 copycat immolation attempts, would spark a month of protests which culminated in Ben Ali’s ouster.,After his ejection, the Tunisian president would live to a ripe old age of 83, passing away in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia in September 2019. But the unrest which his removal sparked would end up transforming much of the Middle East and engulfing some of its countries in crisis which continue to reverberate to this day. In 2011, major protests rocked Algeria and Yemen, and led to the overthrow of the government of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. In Libya, NATO lent a ‘helping hand’ to anti-government rebels by launching a campaign of airstrikes against forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi, culminating in his ouster and televised murder, and turning Libya into a failed state. The contagion of the Arab Spring also spread to Syria, which was turned into a breeding ground for jihadist militants who flocked to the country from the region and across the globe to take part in the unsuccessful US, Turkish, Saudi and Qatari-backed campaign to try to oust the government of Bashar Assad.,Ousted Tunisian President Ben Ali Buried in Saudi Arabia - Reports21 September 2019, 17:53 GMT,* An organization subject to United Nations sanctions for terrorist activities.,** A terrorist group outlawed in Russia and many other countries.。（新华社发） 美国和伊朗战事延宕近半年，伊朗对美国在海湾地区的多座军事基地发动反击，迫使美方审视重建遇袭基地是否“划算”。据英国《金融时报》23日报道，围绕重建议题，美国左右为难：若重建，需要数十亿美元，且有悖当下灵活分散的军事部署趋势；若不重建，缩减中东布局规模，地区盟友不免心生不满，美军也将留下“仓促脱身”的狼狈形象。 基地前景堪忧 据《金融时报》报道，近40年来，美国在中东的军事存在一直由海湾沿岸的军事基地网络支撑，但随着部分基地在美伊战事中遇袭，其前景蒙上阴影。 首先，基地重建需要“烧钱”。美国智库美国企业研究所4月发布的估算数据显示，分布在中东地区7个国家的11座美军基地在战事中受损，修复费用共计50亿美元。这在数百亿美元的美国对伊朗战事投入成本面前，也并非小数字。
B | 其次，为“对抗先进对手”，现有的海湾美军基地日渐“失宠”。报道指出，美国国防部决策层愈发不看好将大型、固定基地作为军事行动集结和补给中心，转而倾向于更加分散的部署模式，使敌方难以打击美军。 第三，部分基地地面设施损毁严重，重建难度较大。伊朗对美军基地的机库、补给和雷达基础设施、指挥控制节点等实施轰炸，美国海军第五舰队一度因其位于巴林的司令部损毁严重，被迫将位于印度洋中部、距离伊朗数千公里的迪戈加西亚岛一处基地作为临时补给枢纽。
C | 美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学国际问题高级研究学院教授哈尔·布兰兹表示，海湾美军基地，尤其是大型基地，“非常脆弱”。他认为美国将调整在该地区的军事部署，把基地“转移至伊朗短程导弹和无人机射程之外”。 伊朗随机应变 为避免落入伊朗短程导弹射程，美军数月来已把部分官兵和战机等转移至以色列、约旦等国，还利用部分欧洲国家的军事基地起降战机和无人机。 伊朗战事爆发以来，已有多名美军士兵身亡，超过200处美军设施受损或被摧毁。美军同时消耗了大量先进防空拦截弹，多种型号导弹库存见底。 伊朗方面则认为与美国陷入旷日持久的军事冲突愈发不可避免，因而早已“未雨绸缪”。据《金融时报》19日报道，伊朗政府内部知情人士警告，如果伊美之间爆发新一轮全面冲突，伊朗将扩大战场，瞄准“更远的目标”，包括美国在保加利亚等东南欧国家的军事设施。
D | 曾供职于以色列军事情报机构的伊朗事务分析师丹尼·齐特里诺维茨推测，伊朗可能研发更多“射程可达以色列或约旦”的中程导弹。 盟友质疑承诺 《金融时报》分析指出，即便美国调整在海湾地区的军事部署，也应考虑中东盟友的感受。数十年来，美国与中东地区盟友签订的“石油换安全”协议不断演变，部分海湾国家已经不再完全信任美国，转而寻求同其他国家建立防务关系，努力摆脱对美防卫依赖。美伊战事迫使所有盟友反思，美国的安全承诺到底意味着什么。
E | 沙特阿拉伯、土耳其和巴基斯坦本月初签署《麦加共同防务协议》。分析人士指出，在伊朗战事影响外溢背景下，一些国家发现美国“靠不住”，因而寻求加强彼此间安全合作，尝试建立地区集体安全机制。 美国国防部负责中东事务的前任官员达纳·斯特劳尔认为，美国需要在军事行动需求与对中东盟友的安全承诺之间取得“微妙平衡”，且需要评估军事资产和部队部署情况，“以保障海湾国家的安全”。 不过，斯特劳尔和布兰兹均认为，美国可能难以摆脱中东盟友为其贴上的“抛弃盟友”“仓促跑路”等负面标签。
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